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That’s why former New York Fed President Bill Dudley said Powell might face a more cynical audience this year, and maybe even doubts about his commitment to the Fed’s 2% inflation target. In his speech last year at Jackson Hole, Powell said inflation that was just starting to develop was “likely to prove temporary.” He added that, “Today we see little evidence of wage increases that might threaten excessive inflation.” There is one word Powell won’t use: “transitory.” It depends on the data after all, and we’re going to get new unemployment and inflation numbers before then. And maybe that will get investors’ attention.”ĭon’t look for Powell to say exactly how much the Fed will raise interest rates at its September meeting. “He’s used language like that - ‘We can’t lose in this inflation fight.’ If he uses that language again, that’s pretty strong. “If he just continues to emphasize that ‘they can’t lose,’ ” Bostjancic said. economist Kathy Bostjancic said there are phrases Powell could use to give markets a reality check. Powell likes to say the Fed’s next moves depend on the data - things like the unemployment rate and inflation. Investors are expecting the Fed to slow the pace of interest rate hikes or even start cutting rates next year.
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There are some key words to watch for in Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech: “data,” “inflation,” “unemployment,” “supply chain,” “oil,” “Russia” and “soft landing.” (More on that bingo game in a moment.)
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It gives you hints and subtle clues, dropping words from statements or changing the adjectives used to describe the economy. The central bank doesn’t spell out what it’s going to do. Fed observers will be glued to the action at Jackson Hole.įed watching is a delicate art. It’s trying to raise interest rates just enough to cool down the economy, without causing a recession. This year’s symposium comes at a tricky time for the Fed. Jackson Hole is a gathering of top central bankers from the U.S. Find our Fed Bingo Card at the bottom of this post.įederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at the Fed’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Friday, Aug.